Energy reports
Nuclear energy risks an industrial meltdown for local manufacturing jobs
Year - 2025 Partners - Renew Australia for All
A nuclear policy, if enacted, risks Australia’s aluminium manufacturing industry and up to 13,500 jobs due to:
● A 50% collapse in industrial electricity usage by 2035
● Permanently higher electricity prices, and more reliance on ageing and increasingly unreliable coal and expensive gas generation
● Development & decarbonisation timelines that don’t meet industry requirements or align with climate science
Delaying renewable energy in favour of nuclear reactors in Australia could risk closure of the country’s four aluminium smelters (at Tomago in NSW, Gladstone in Queensland, Portland in Victoria, and Bell Bay in Tasmania) and up to 13,500 jobs. The switch to nuclear would drastically reduce electricity available for industrial usage across eastern states, and would leave the sector facing high energy prices.
Our analysis examines the modelling that informs the Federal Opposition’s nuclear policy. The model used to underpin the policy and associated costings shows that industrial electricity usage would halve as early as 2035 (dropping from 45.4 TWh/year currently, to 22.8 TWh/year in 2035) - a collapse in energy usage of this magnitude is equivalent to the closure of Australia’s four aluminium smelters (they currently use 23.5 TWh/year).
The risk posed by this collapse is further exacerbated by an associated increase in energy costs and a decarbonisation timeline that is too slow to meet the requirements of the environment or those outlined by industry.
Australia’s aluminium industry currently supports 7,594 direct jobs and 5,886 jobs indirectly. The energy pathway we are following already will re-power existing smelters with lowest-cost, firmed renewable energy, offering security and sustainability to vital regional manufacturing hubs and the thousands of livelihoods that depend on them.
Small and getting smaller - The future of gas use for electricity in Australia
Year - 2024 Partners - Solutions for Climate Australia and Labor Environmental Action Network
The true role of gas for electricity generation is limited and diminishing.
Current trends and future demand scenarios modelled by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and others, exposes a sharp fall in Australia’s need for gas-fired electricity generation as a ‘transition fuel’ in the shift from coal to renewable energy.
This is already playing out in practice, Gas use for Power Generation (GPG) peaked in the National Electricity Market (NEM) in 2014 and has been falling ever since, hitting a record low in Q4 2023. Western Australia has also seen a more gradual decline in the South West Interconnected System (SWIS) since GPG peaked in 2009.
Forecast scenarios on future gas demand conducted by AEMO have indicated that gas use in our electricity system will continue to decline in all modelled scenarios and will likely reach half of current usage in 2042.
The report provides a clear and concise summary of the quantity of gas that will be required for electricity generation in Australia over the coming years based on official guidance.
While there will be a role for existing gas-peaking plants in the medium term to provide firming capacity at times, the emergence and maturation of new technologies such as long duration battery storage and alternative liquid fuel solutions that are capable of providing long duration storage and firming services, may see gas consumption fall even faster than current forecasts indicate.
Recharging the Territory - Jobs, skills, lower bills.
Year - 2024 Partners - Environment Centre NT
Recharging the Territory proposes an alternative economic vision for the Northern Territory (NT) that tackles the cost-of-living crisis, while creating energy security and thousands of sustainable, future-ready jobs.
Realising this vision could transform the lives of many people in the NT. It shows a path to kicking off a renewables revolution and allowing us to make large scale solar a reality. It outlines a package that would lowers power bills and gives breathing space for families who are doing it tough. Recharging the Territory gets workers ready for the renewable energy industry and creates thousands of sustainable, local jobs.
The Federal Government’s $1.5 billion dollar program to convert the Middle Arm peninsula into a major gas and petrochemical export hub will transfer public money into the hands of offshore gas companies with little benefit for Territorians, or for a competitive, clean economy future.
Funding this development will come at a significant cost to residents. It will:
impact our iconic harbour by dredging, building five product jetties, increasing shipping traffic and contaminating our marine environments
impact our health by increasing air pollution, which NT doctors say will increase the cancer risk in children in Darwin and Palmerston.
destroy any chance we have of securing a safe climate for future generations as it unlocks major gas projects across the Territory, dramatically increasing Australia’s national emissions.
Finally, it does not stack up economically, with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analytics finding that the business model is flawed and relies on unproven assumptions. The cost of this will fall on Australian taxpayers.
There is a better way.
This report shows that redeploying the Federal Government’s $1.5 billion dollar commitment into a Recharging the Territory Package would deliver more high-quality jobs for locals, directly tackle the NT’s cost-of-living crisis and provide the foundations for a strong and diverse new industry sector. We can invest in energy and skills to fix the NT’s unstable electricity system and provide energy security for households. We can deliver energy upgrades for every low income and public housing dwelling in the NT, which will give families economic relief in a cost-of-living crisis. Finally, we can expedite strategic industrial land development at East Arm or return the Port of Darwin to public ownership.